Recently, Maui’s Mayor floated a law that would ban vacation rentals at over 100 properties on Maui in 2026, creating uncertainty in the market among investors looking for short term rental ownership. However, there are plenty of properties NOT included in the potential ban, and investors are focusing on those condos.
In the week following the announcement, only two vacation rental condos in South Maui went into escrow, and the MLS recorded 15 cancelled escrows, the most in recent memory in a week’s time. In the unlikely event that the law actually passes and settles, value on these properties is likely to rise dramatically as vacation rentable condos decrease by some 7,000. Here are some properties that we manage that are NOT on the target list:
Hale Hui Kai
Honua Kai
Island Surf
Kalama Terrace
Kamaole Beach Royale
Kamaole Nalu
Kihei Bay Vista
Kihei Beach
Kihei Holiday
Mana Kai
Royal Mauian
We rent out and manage 72 vacation condos in Kihei, Wailea, and Maalaea, all owned by mainland investors who have a “home” on Maui that’s being paid for by strangers. We average around 80% occupancy across the board, from our luxury Wailea and Makena units to our moderately priced condos across the street from the beach.
Maui’s least expensive vacation rental investment condo sells for around $650,000 today, while units at luxury properties like Ho’olei and Makena Surf sell for $4-6 million.
The market today is in a very strange place with our Mayor recently writing a law that, if passed, will convert most of Maui’s vacation rental condos to long term rentals of six months or more. This makes ownership much less attractive, as rental income and owner use opportunities are impacted (see first article in this newsletter). Critics say the bill will be overturned in the Hawaii Court of Appeals.
The news brought a wave of uncertainty to Maui’s Realtors. I contacted several clients who are shopping for investment property and advised that they limit their hunt, at least temporarily, to properties that are not on the list of targeted properties (see below).
We’re not sure about Wailea Elua: the Minatoya list mostly targets properties that are Apartment Zoned, and has referred to Hotel-zoned properties as immune from the change. However, Elua is both on the list and zoned Hotel. We’ll clarify that as we can.
Kevin Spaise is a Maui Realtor specializing in Maui vacation rental investment real estate. Kevin is an expert in Kihei and Wailea real estate and has been a full time Realtor for 20 years, with more than $120M transacted. He owns Vacation Maui, a property management company with 70+ investment condos under management, and delights in providing real-time performance data to future investors. See KevinSpaise.com, or call him directly at (808) 344-0624.
Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.
Ocean Front Mana Kai 410 continues to rock 75% occupancy with ADR of $476
Mana Kai not targeted on Minatoya list, new law would have no impact
Beach front Mana Kai market active, with two units closing at over $2M
Vacation-Maui’s two luxury Elua units crush it in April, with 80% occupancy
Wailea Elua zoned Hotel, not targeted by Minatoya list
Low inventory, high demand drives strong Wailea Elua vacation rental condo market
Palms at Wailea hits 85% occupancy in April, despite soft visitor count
Quiet market at Palms of Wailea
Wailea Ekahi 4E books 28 of 30 available nights
Whether you're just starting to explore the options and want a quick overview of the areas and pricing, or specific properties have caught your attention, I would so appreciate the opportunity to share my knowledge and insight with you. Warm Aloha!